- Skewed Business Cycles (with Fatih Guvenen and Nick Bloom). This paper studies how the distribution of the growth rate of macro- and microlevel variables changes over the business cycle. At the micro level, we use firm panel data for more than 30 countries to show that skewness is strongly procyclical, driven by a large left tail of negative growth rates during recessions. At the macro level, analyzing the growth rates of GDP and stock market returns, we find a similar phenomenon of procyclical skewness. These results are robust to different selection criteria, across countries, industries, and measures, suggesting that a widening left tail—and, consequently, a more negative skewness—is a basic stylized fact of business cycles. Preliminary Draft SED Slides.
Work in Progress
- The Firms of the Super Rich (with Simone Civale and Luis Diez-Catalan)
- Product Friction Heterogeneity and the Business Cycle (with Eugenia Gonzalez-Aguado).
Research Previous to the PhD
- Does the BIC Estimate and Forecast Better than the AIC? (with Carlos Medel). Economic Analysis Review, 2013. Paper.
- Investment Dynamics in a DSGE model with Heterogeneous Firms and Corporate Taxation. Working Paper, Central Bank of Chile, 2011. Paper.