I am a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of Minnesota.
I will be available for interviews at the 2018 ASSA Meeting in Philadelphia, PA.
Phone: +1 (612) 636-7332
Fields: Macroeconomics, Labor Economics
Abstract: The proportion of entrepreneurs in the US working-age population has declined over recent decades. Over the same period, there has been a substantial increase in the returns to highly educated workers. This paper relates these two facts. First, I document that the decrease in the overall share of entrepreneurs is largely explained by the decline in entrepreneurship among college graduates. Then, I build a dynamic entrepreneurial choice model in which individuals’ occupation depends on their skill level, assets, and entrepreneurial ability. In this model, the rapid increase in the wages of high skill workers reduces the relative value of becoming an entrepreneur, thereby explaining the decline in the share of entrepreneurs in the population. I find that the increase in the wages of high skill workers accounts for a large fraction of the decline in entrepreneurship experienced by the US economy.
- The Great Micro Moderation (with Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, John Sabelhaus, and Jae Song)
Full paper pending Social Security Administration clearance (Presented at Duke University, University of Chicago, Stanford University, and FRB of Minneapolis)
Abstract: This paper studies how the distribution of the growth rate of macro- and micro level variables change over the business cycle. At the micro level, we use firm panel data for more than 30 countries to show that skewness is strongly procyclical, driven by a large left tail of negative growth rates during recessions. At the macro level, analyzing the growth rates of GDP and stock market returns, we find a similar phenomenon of procyclical skewness. These results are robust to different selection criteria, across countries, industries, and measures, suggesting that a widening left tail—and, consequently, a more negative skewness—is a basic stylized fact of business cycles.
Work in Progress
Abstract: This paper characterizes the dynamics of wealth at the top of the distribution in the United States. Using data from the Forbes Magazine and other publicly available sources, we construct a novel panel data set of the richest individuals in the United States, covering the period 1982-2016. Using these data we find that: i) the Super-Rich exhibit a hump-shaped age profile of wealth which features explosive growth at younger ages, and ii) their wealth growth is highly cyclical, with substantial downside risk during recessions.
- Does the BIC Estimate and Forecast Better than the AIC? (with Carlos Medel). Economic Analysis Review, 2013.