I am a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of Minnesota
Phone: +1 (612) 636-7332
Job Market Paper
Prof. Fatih Guvenen firstname.lastname@example.org
Prof. Patrick J. Kehoe email@example.com
Prof. Elena Pastorino firstname.lastname@example.org
Prof. Nicholas Bloom email@example.com
Technical Change and Entrepreneurship
Job Market Paper
Abstract: The proportion of entrepreneurs in the US working-age population has declined over the last three decades. Over the same period, there has been a substantial increase in the returns to highly educated workers. This paper relates these two facts. Using individual-level data, I provide evidence on the decline in the population share of entrepreneurs and in the entry rate into entrepreneurship. I also show that the decline is most concentrated among college graduates. Then, using an otherwise standard entrepreneurial choice model with two skill groups of individuals, I show that the decline in entrepreneurship is the equilibrium outcome of two forces that have increased the returns to high skill labor: the skill-biased technical change and the decrease in the cost of capital goods. I find that these two technological forces jointly account for three-quarters of the decline in the share of entrepreneurs observed in the United States over the last 30 years.
The Great Micro Moderation (with Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, John Sabelhaus, and Jae Song)
Full paper pending Social Security Administration clearance (Presented at Duke University, University of Chicago, Stanford University, and FRB of Minneapolis)
Skewed Business Cycles (with Fatih Guvenen and Nicholas Bloom).
Abstract: This paper studies how the distribution of the growth rate of macro- and micro level variables change over the business cycle. At the micro level, we use firm panel data for more than 30 countries to show that skewness is strongly procyclical, driven by a large left tail of negative growth rates during recessions. At the macro level, analyzing the growth rates of GDP and stock market returns, we find a similar phenomenon of procyclical skewness. These results are robust to different selection criteria, across countries, industries, and measures, suggesting that a widening left tail—and, consequently, a more negative skewness—is a basic stylized fact of business cycles.
Rich Entrepreneurs and Wealth Inequality (with Luis Diez-Catalan)
Abstract: Top wealth inequality in the United States has increased dramatically since the 1980s. This paper documents that part of this increase relates to the rise of superstar firms. We build a novel owner-firm matched panel dataset using information from the official records of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Forbes, and Compustat. Using this data we document that: (i) firms at the upper end of the market value distribution are disproportionately controlled by individuals at the top of the wealth distribution, (ii) these individuals invest a large fraction of their net worth in one or two main firms which we interpret as evidence of lack of asset diversification, and (iii) the output, employment, and market value shares accounted for by these firms has increased substantially over the last 30 years.
Work in Progress
Wealth Dynamics of the Super-Rich (with Simone Civale and Luis Diez-Catalan)
Abstract: This paper characterizes the dynamics of wealth at the top of the distribution in the United States. Using data from the Forbes Magazine and other publicly available sources, we construct a novel panel data set of the richest individuals in the United States, covering the period 1982-2016. Using these data we find that: i) the Super-Rich exhibit a hump-shaped age profile of wealth which features explosive growth at younger ages, and ii) their wealth growth is highly cyclical, with substantial downside risk during recessions.
Does the BIC Estimate and Forecast Better than the AIC? (with Carlos Medel). Economic Analysis Review, 2013.